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| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien, 2024-10-15 Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Poor Charlie’s Almanack Charles T. Munger, 2023-12-05 From the legendary vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, lessons in investment strategy, philanthropy, and living a rational and ethical life. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up,” Charles T. Munger advises in Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Originally published in 2005, this compendium of eleven talks delivered by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman between 1986 and 2007 has become a touchstone for a generation of investors and entrepreneurs seeking to absorb the enduring wit and wisdom of one of the great minds of the 20th and 21st centuries. Edited by Peter D. Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Glenair and longtime friend of Charlie Munger—whom he calls “this generation’s answer to Benjamin Franklin”—this abridged Stripe Press edition of Poor Charlie’s Almanack features a brand-new foreword by Stripe cofounder John Collison. Poor Charlie’s Almanack draws on Munger’s encyclopedic knowledge of business, finance, history, philosophy, physics, and ethics—and more besides—to introduce the latticework of mental models that underpin his rational and rigorous approach to life, learning, and decision-making. Delivered with Munger’s characteristic sharp wit and rhetorical flair, it is an essential volume for any reader seeking to go to bed a little wiser than when they woke up. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Tao of Charlie Munger David Clark, 2017-01-03 Words of wisdom from the late Charlie Munger—Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner and the visionary Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway—collected and interpreted with an eye towards investing by David Clark, coauthor of the bestselling Buffettology series. Born in Omaha, Nebraska in 1924, Charlie Munger studied mathematics at the University of Michigan, trained as a meteorologist at Cal Tech Pasadena while in the Army, and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School without ever earning an undergraduate degree. Munger was one of America’s most successful investors, the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, and Warren Buffett’s business partner for almost forty years. Buffett says “Berkshire has been built to Charlie’s blueprint. My role has been that of general contractor.” Munger was an intelligent, opinionated businessman whose ideas can teach professional and amateur investors how to be successful in finance and life. Like The Tao of Warren Buffett and The Tao of Te Ching, The Tao of Charlie Munger is a compendium of pithy quotes including, “Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant” and “In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time—none, zero.” This collection, culled from interviews, speeches, and questions and answers at the Berkshire Hathaway and Wesco annual meetings, offers insights into Munger’s amazing financial success and life philosophies. Described by Business Insider as “sharp in his wit and investing wisdom,” Charlie Munger’s investment tips, business philosophy, and rules for living are as unique, intelligent, and successful as he was. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Late Bloomers Rich Karlgaard, 2021-01-19 A groundbreaking exploration of how finding one's way later in life can be an advantage to long-term achievement and happiness. “What Yogi Berra observed about a baseball game—it ain't over till it's over—is true about life, and [Late Bloomers] is the ultimate proof of this. . . . It’s a keeper.”—Forbes We live in a society where kids and parents are obsessed with early achievement, from getting perfect scores on SATs to getting into Ivy League colleges to landing an amazing job at Google or Facebook—or even better, creating a start-up with the potential to be the next Google, Facebook or Uber. We see coders and entrepreneurs become millionaires or billionaires before age thirty, and feel we are failing if we are not one of them. Late bloomers, on the other hand, are under-valued—in popular culture, by educators and employers, and even unwittingly by parents. Yet the fact is, a lot of us—most of us—do not explode out of the gates in life. We have to discover our passions and talents and gifts. That was true for author Rich Karlgaard, who had a mediocre academic career at Stanford (which he got into by a fluke) and, after graduating, worked as a dishwasher and night watchman before finding the inner motivation and drive that ultimately led him to start up a high-tech magazine in Silicon Valley, and eventually to become the publisher of Forbes magazine. There is a scientific explanation for why so many of us bloom later in life. The executive function of our brains doesn’t mature until age twenty-five, and later for some. In fact, our brain’s capabilities peak at different ages. We actually experience multiple periods of blooming in our lives. Moreover, late bloomers enjoy hidden strengths because they take their time to discover their way in life—strengths coveted by many employers and partners—including curiosity, insight, compassion, resilience, and wisdom. Based on years of research, personal experience, interviews with neuroscientists, psychologists, and countless people at different stages of their careers, Late Bloomers reveals how and when we achieve our full potential. Praise for Late Bloomers “The underlying message that we should ‘consider a kinder clock for human development’ is a compelling one.”—Financial Times “Late Bloomers spoke to me deeply as a parent of two millennials and as a coach to many new college grads (the children of my friends and associates). It’s a bracing tonic for the anxiety they are swimming through, with a facts-based approach to help us all calm down.”—Robin Wolaner, founder of Parenting magazine |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Getting There Gillian Zoe Segal, 2015-04-14 “The highest achievers share some of their lowest moments, and there is much wisdom to be gained from those struggles. Captivating, thought-provoking.” —David Faber, CNBC The path to success is rarely easy or direct, and good mentors are hard to find. In Getting There, thirty leaders in diverse fields share their secrets to navigating the rocky road to the top. In an honest, direct, and engaging way, these role models describe the obstacles they faced, the setbacks they endured, and the vital lessons they learned. They dispense not only essential and practical career advice, but also priceless wisdom applicable to life in general. Getting There is for everyone—from students contemplating their futures to the vast majority of us facing challenges or seeking to reach our potential. “Kudos to Gillian Zoe Segal for assembling this remarkable group of visionaries and helping them all tell their stories without filters or false bravado. Getting There is both empowering and illuminating.” —Piper Kerman, New York Times-bestselling author of Orange Is the New Black “Life-changing, real-world advice.” —Vanity Fair “Reading Getting There is like having an intimate, one-on-one talk with some of the world’s most fascinating and accomplished people. You will be taken aback by their honesty, entertained by their anecdotes, and, most of all, learn invaluable lessons about both business and life. This book is fantastic—you will not be able to put it down!”—JJ Ramberg, bestselling author of It’s Your Business “Somehow, Gillian Zoe Segal has gotten these leaders to share their stories in a unique, authentic, and revealing way.” —Robert Steven Kaplan, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: How We Know What Isn't So Thomas Gilovich, 2008-06-30 Thomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that teams and players have winning streaks, that flattery works, or that the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Confidence Game Maria Konnikova, 2017-01-10 It’s a startling and disconcerting read that should make you think twice every time a friend of a friend offers you the opportunity of a lifetime.” —Erik Larson, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Dead Wake and bestselling author of Devil in the White City Think you can’t get conned? Think again. The New York Times bestselling author of Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes explains how to spot the con before they spot you. “[An] excellent study of Con Artists, stories & the human need to believe” –Neil Gaiman, via Twitter A compelling investigation into the minds, motives, and methods of con artists—and the people who fall for their cons over and over again. While cheats and swindlers may be a dime a dozen, true conmen—the Bernie Madoffs, the Jim Bakkers, the Lance Armstrongs—are elegant, outsized personalities, artists of persuasion and exploiters of trust. How do they do it? Why are they successful? And what keeps us falling for it, over and over again? These are the questions that journalist and psychologist Maria Konnikova tackles in her mesmerizing new book. From multimillion-dollar Ponzi schemes to small-time frauds, Konnikova pulls together a selection of fascinating stories to demonstrate what all cons share in common, drawing on scientific, dramatic, and psychological perspectives. Insightful and gripping, the book brings readers into the world of the con, examining the relationship between artist and victim. The Confidence Game asks not only why we believe con artists, but also examines the very act of believing and how our sense of truth can be manipulated by those around us. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Book of Questions Gregory Stock, 2013-09-10 The phenomenon returns! Originally published in 1987, The Book of Questions, a New York Times bestseller, has been completely revised and updated to incorporate the myriad cultural shifts and hot-button issues of the past twenty-five years, making it current and even more appealing. This is a book for personal growth, a tool for deepening relationships, a lively conversation starter for the family dinner table, a fun way to pass the time in the car. It poses over 300 questions that invite people to explore the most fascinating of subjects: themselves and how they really feel about the world. The revised edition includes more than 100 all-new questions that delve into such topics as the disappearing border between man and machine—How would you react if you learned that a sad and beautiful poem that touched you deeply had been written by a computer? The challenges of being a parent—Would you completely rewrite your child’s college-application essays if it would help him get into a better school? The never-endingly interesting topic of sex—Would you be willing to give up sex for a year if you knew it would give you a much deeper sense of peace than you now have? And of course the meaning of it all—If you were handed an envelope with the date of your death inside, and you knew you could do nothing to alter your fate, would you look? The Book of Questions may be the only publication that challenges—and even changes—the way you view the world, without offering a single opinion of its own. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The 25 Cognitive Biases Kai Musashi, 2016-05-16 The 25 Cognitive Biases You NEED To Know! Want To Get Ahead In Life? Well You've Come To The Right Place... Learn These 25 Cognitive Biases Today! Have you ever found yourself wondering why you make the decisions you make? Why you seem to like the same things as others, or why you believe only what you want to believe? Well, it may be because certain Cognitive Biases are working-and they're slowly taking over your brain. Now, this really isn't something good because it means you are somehow not in control of yourself anymore. Cognitive Biases also begin to blind you. They make you believe in certain things that could cloud your judgment-and that's why you do the things you do. However, there's a way for you to fight these Cognitive Biases-and you'll find them all right here! With the help of this book, you'd learn about the 25 Cognitive Biases-what they're about, and how to stop being their victim! Read this book now and be a better, more decisive, and confident you in time! |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli, 2014-05-06 A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t. Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Person and the Situation Lee Ross, Richard E. Nisbett, 2011 How does the situation we're in influence the way we behave and think? Professors Ross and Nisbett eloquently argue that the context we find ourselves in substantially affects our behavior in this timely reissue of one of social psychology's classic textbooks. With a new foreword by Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Neuroeconomics, Judgment, and Decision Making Evan A. Wilhelms, Valerie F. Reyna, 2014-07-11 This volume explores how and why people make judgments and decisions that have economic consequences, and what the implications are for human well-being. It provides an integrated review of the latest research from many different disciplines, including social, cognitive, and developmental psychology; neuroscience and neurobiology; and economics and business. The book has six areas of focus: historical foundations; cognitive consistency and inconsistency; heuristics and biases; neuroeconomics and neurobiology; developmental and individual differences; and improving decisions. Throughout, the contributors draw out implications from traditional behavioral research as well as evidence from neuroscience. In recent years, neuroscientific methods have matured, beyond being simply correlational and descriptive, into theoretical prediction and explanation, and this has opened up many new areas of discovery about economic behavior that are reviewed in the book. In the final part, there are applications of the research to cognitive development, individual differences, and the improving of decisions. The book takes a broad perspective and is written in an accessible way so as to reach a wide audience of advanced students and researchers interested in behavioral economics and related areas. This includes neuroscientists, neuropsychologists, clinicians, psychologists (developmental, social, and cognitive), economists and other social scientists; legal scholars and criminologists; professionals in public health and medicine; educators; evidence-based practitioners; and policy-makers. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Warren Buffett's Ground Rules Jeremy C. Miller, 2016-04-26 Using the letters Warren Buffett wrote to his partners between 1956 and 1970, a veteran financial advisor presents the renowned guru’s “ground rules” for investing—guidelines that remain startlingly relevant today. In the fourteen years between his time in New York with value-investing guru Benjamin Graham and his start as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett managed Buffett Partnership Limited, his first professional investing partnership. Over the course of that time—a period in which he experienced an unprecedented record of success—Buffett wrote semiannual letters to his small but growing group of partners, sharing his thoughts, approaches, and reflections. Compiled for the first time and with Buffett’s permission, the letters spotlight his contrarian diversification strategy, his almost religious celebration of compounding interest, his preference for conservative rather than conventional decision making, and his goal and tactics for bettering market results by at least 10% annually. Demonstrating Buffett’s intellectual rigor, they provide a framework to the craft of investing that had not existed before: Buffett built upon the quantitative contributions made by his famous teacher, Benjamin Graham, demonstrating how they could be applied and improved. Jeremy Miller reveals how these letters offer us a rare look into Buffett’s mind and offer accessible lessons in control and discipline—effective in bull and bear markets alike, and in all types of investing climates—that are the bedrock of his success. Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules paints a portrait of the sage as a young investor during a time when he developed the long-term value-oriented strategy that helped him build the foundation of his wealth—rules for success every investor needs today. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Thinking in Systems Donella Meadows, 2008-12-03 The classic book on systems thinking—with more than half a million copies sold worldwide! This is a fabulous book... This book opened my mind and reshaped the way I think about investing.—Forbes Thinking in Systems is required reading for anyone hoping to run a successful company, community, or country. Learning how to think in systems is now part of change-agent literacy. And this is the best book of its kind.—Hunter Lovins In the years following her role as the lead author of the international bestseller, Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet—Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. Some of the biggest problems facing the world—war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation—are essentially system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others, because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Who's in Charge? Michael S. Gazzaniga, 2011-11-15 “Big questions are Gazzaniga’s stock in trade.” —New York Times “Gazzaniga is one of the most brilliant experimental neuroscientists in the world.” —Tom Wolfe “Gazzaniga stands as a giant among neuroscientists, for both the quality of his research and his ability to communicate it to a general public with infectious enthusiasm.” —Robert Bazell, Chief Science Correspondent, NBC News The author of Human, Michael S. Gazzaniga has been called the “father of cognitive neuroscience.” In his remarkable book, Who’s in Charge?, he makes a powerful and provocative argument that counters the common wisdom that our lives are wholly determined by physical processes we cannot control. His well-reasoned case against the idea that we live in a “determined” world is fascinating and liberating, solidifying his place among the likes of Oliver Sacks, Antonio Damasio, V.S. Ramachandran, and other bestselling science authors exploring the mysteries of the human brain. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Pavlov's Dogs and Schrödinger's Cat Rom Harré, 2009-02-26 From the sheep, dog, and cockerel that were sent aloft in Montgolfier's balloon, to Galvani's frog's legs, Dolly the Sheep, the finches of the Galapagos, and even imaginary cats and simulated life forms, Pavlov's Dogs and Schrödinger's Cat explores the fascinating history of the role of living things in science. The ways in which animals and plants have been used in science has always been a matter for considerable public debate, and this book provides an important and fascinating new perspective, setting aside moral reflection to simply examine the history of how and why living creatures have been used for the purposes of scientific discovery. Many extraordinary stories are uncovered throughout five centuries of science - tales of the people involved, curious incidents and episodes, and the occasional scientific fraud too, as clear reflections on the history and philosophy of science are combined with remarkable accounts from the living laboratory. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Manual of Ideas John Mihaljevic, 2013-08-12 Reveals the proprietary framework used by an exclusive community of top money managers and value investors in their never-ending quest for untapped investment ideas Considered an indispensable source of cutting-edge research and ideas among the world's top investment firms and money managers, the journal The Manual of Ideas boasts a subscribers list that reads like a Who's Who of high finance. Written by that publication’s managing editor and inspired by its mission to serve as an idea funnel for the world's top money managers, this book introduces you to a proven, proprietary framework for finding, researching, analyzing, and implementing the best value investing opportunities. The next best thing to taking a peek under the hoods of some of the most prodigious brains in the business, it gives you uniquely direct access to the thought processes and investment strategies of such super value investors as Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Glenn Greenberg, Guy Spier and Joel Greenblatt. Written by the team behind one of the most read and talked-about sources of research and value investing ideas Reviews more than twenty pre-qualified investment ideas and provides an original ranking methodology to help you zero-in on the three to five most compelling investments Delivers a finely-tuned, proprietary investment framework, previously available only to an elite group of TMI subscribers Step-by-step, it walks you through a proven, rigorous approach to finding, researching, analyzing, and implementing worthy ideas |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: On Success Charles T. Munger, 2009-12-01 |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Human Animal Eric T. Olson, 1999-09-02 Most philosophers writing about personal identity in recent years claim that what it takes for us to persist through time is a matter of psychology. In this groundbreaking new book, Eric Olson argues that such approaches face daunting problems, and he defends in their place a radically non-psychological account of personal identity. He defines human beings as biological organisms, and claims that no psychological relation is either sufficient or necessary for an organism to persist. Rejecting several famous thought experiments dealing with personal identity, he instead argues that one could survive the destruction of all of one's psychological contents and capabilities as long as the human organism remains alive. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Psychology of Paranormal Belief Harvey J. Irwin, 2009-09 With a thorough and systematic review of investigations into the bases of belief in paranormal phenomena, this discussion explores the four main theoretical approaches relating to the nature of such beliefs. Objective and well-researched, this account addresses different points of view on the topic--while some commentators depict paranormal believers as foolish, others propose that paranormal beliefs must be understood as necessities that serve certain psychodynamic needs. The foundations and shortcomings of each approach are also documented, and a new comprehensive theory attempts to explain the development of scientifically unsubstantiated beliefs. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: How We Decide Jonah Lehrer, 2010-01-14 The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we “blink” and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind’s black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they’re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason—and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it’s best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we’re picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think. Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of “deciders”—from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players. Lehrer shows how people are taking advantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence. His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from CEOs to firefighters: How does the human mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better? |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Psychology of Problem Solving Janet E. Davidson, Robert J. Sternberg, 2003-06-09 Problems are a central part of human life. The Psychology of Problem Solving organizes in one volume much of what psychologists know about problem solving and the factors that contribute to its success or failure. There are chapters by leading experts in this field, including Miriam Bassok, Randall Engle, Anders Ericsson, Arthur Graesser, Keith Stanovich, Norbert Schwarz, and Barry Zimmerman, among others. The Psychology of Problem Solving is divided into four parts. Following an introduction that reviews the nature of problems and the history and methods of the field, Part II focuses on individual differences in, and the influence of, the abilities and skills that humans bring to problem situations. Part III examines motivational and emotional states and cognitive strategies that influence problem solving performance, while Part IV summarizes and integrates the various views of problem solving proposed in the preceding chapters. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Checklist Manifesto Atul Gawande, 2010-04-01 The New York Times bestselling author of Being Mortal and Complications reveals the surprising power of the ordinary checklist We live in a world of great and increasing complexity, where even the most expert professionals struggle to master the tasks they face. Longer training, ever more advanced technologies—neither seems to prevent grievous errors. But in a hopeful turn, acclaimed surgeon and writer Atul Gawande finds a remedy in the humblest and simplest of techniques: the checklist. First introduced decades ago by the U.S. Air Force, checklists have enabled pilots to fly aircraft of mind-boggling sophistication. Now innovative checklists are being adopted in hospitals around the world, helping doctors and nurses respond to everything from flu epidemics to avalanches. Even in the immensely complex world of surgery, a simple ninety-second variant has cut the rate of fatalities by more than a third. In riveting stories, Gawande takes us from Austria, where an emergency checklist saved a drowning victim who had spent half an hour underwater, to Michigan, where a cleanliness checklist in intensive care units virtually eliminated a type of deadly hospital infection. He explains how checklists actually work to prompt striking and immediate improvements. And he follows the checklist revolution into fields well beyond medicine, from disaster response to investment banking, skyscraper construction, and businesses of all kinds. An intellectual adventure in which lives are lost and saved and one simple idea makes a tremendous difference, The Checklist Manifesto is essential reading for anyone working to get things right. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: When the Lyrebird Calls Kim Kane, 2016-10-26 When Madeleine is shipped off to stay with her eccentric grandmother for the holidays, she expects the usual: politics, early-morning yoga, extreme health food, and lots of hard work. Instead, Madeleine tumbles back in time to 1900, where the wealthy Williamson family takes her into their home, Lyrebird Muse. At a time when young girls have no power and no voice, set against a backdrop of the struggles for emancipation, federation and Aboriginal rights, Madeleine must find a way to fit in with the Williamson family's four sisters - beautiful, cold Bea; clever, awkward Gert; adventurous, rebellious Charlie; and darling baby Imo - as she searches desperately for a way home. Meanwhile, the Williamson girls' enchanting German cousin, Elfriede, arrives on the scene on a heavenly wave of smoke and cinnamon, and threatens to shatter everything... 'I found myself magically transported to a time gone by ... This is a novel about feminism: about where we have been and where we are now. Written with elegance, humour, intelligence and originality, When the Lyrebird Calls is as precious as the lyrebird itself.' SOFIE LAGUNA, Miles Franklin Literary Award winner 'When the Lyrebird Calls is truly beautiful, a wonderful book. I have no doubt it will be widely read and loved for many years to come.' FIONA WOOD |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Metaphor Wars Raymond W. Gibbs, 2017-05-04 The study of metaphor is now firmly established as a central topic within cognitive science and the humanities. This book explores the critical role that conceptual metaphors play in language, thought, cultural and expressive actions. It evaluates the arguments and evidence for and against conceptual metaphors across academic disciplines. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Pragmatic Capitalism Cullen Roche, 2014-07-08 An insightful and original look at why understanding macroeconomics is essential for all investors |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: James Madison Jay Cost, 2021-11-09 An intellectual biography of James Madison, arguing that he invented American politics as we know it How do you solve a problem like James Madison? The fourth president is one of the most confounding figures in early American history; his political trajectory seems almost intentionally inconsistent. He was both for and against a strong federal government. He wrote about the dangers of political parties in the Federalist Papers and then helped to found the Republican Party just a few years later. This so-called Madison problem has occupied scholars for ages. As Jay Cost shows in this incisive new biography, the underlying logic of Madison’s seemingly mixed record comes into focus only when we understand him primarily as a working politician. Whereas other founders split their time between politics and other vocations, Madison dedicated himself singularly to the work of politics and ultimately developed it into a distinctly American idiom. He was, in short, the first American politician. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Trouble in Mind Dean F. MacKinnon, 2011-01-15 Orthodox psychiatric texts are often rich in facts, but thin in concept. Depression may be defined as a dysfunction of mood, but of what use is a mood? How can anxiety be both symptom and adaptation to stress? What links the disparate disabilities of perception and reasoning in schizophrenia? Why does the same situation push one person into drink, drugs, danger, or despair and bounce harmlessly off another? Trouble in Mind is unorthodox because it models adaptive mental function along with mental illness to answer questions like these. From experience as a Johns Hopkins clinician, educator, and researcher, Dean F. MacKinnon offers a unique perspective on the nature of human anguish, unreason, disability, and self-destruction. He shows what mental illness can teach about the mind, from molecules to memory to motivation to meaning. MacKinnon’s fascinating model of the mind as a vital function will enlighten anyone intrigued by the mysteries of thought, feeling, and behavior. Clinicians in training will especially appreciate the way mental illness can illuminate normal mental processes, as medical illness in general teaches about normal body functions. For students, the book also includes useful guides to psychiatric assessment and diagnosis. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Contrarian Investment Strategies David Dreman, 2012-01-10 Introduces important new findings in psychology to demonstrate why most investment strategies are flawed, outlining atypical strategies designed to prevent over- and under-valuations while crash-proofing a portfolio. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Human Response to Vibration Neil J. Mansfield, 2004-10-28 Through continued collaboration and the sharing of ideas, data, and results, the international community of researchers and practitioners has developed an understanding of many facets of the human response to vibration. At a time when the EU is preparing to adopt a directive on health risks arising from occupational exposure to vibration, Human Response to Vibration offers authoritative guidance on this complex subject. Individual chapters in the book examine issues relating to whole-body vibration, hand-arm vibration, and motion sickness. Vibration measurements and standards are also addressed. This book meets the needs of those requiring knowledge of human response to vibration in order to make practical improvements to the physical working environment. Written with the consultant, practitioner, researcher, and student in mind, the text is designed to be an educational tool, a reference, and a stimulus for new ideas for the next generation of specialists. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Advances in Behavioral Economics Colin F. Camerer, George Loewenstein, Matthew Rabin, 2004 Today, behavioral economics has become virtually mainstream. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Seeking Wisdom Peter Bevelin, 2004-03-01 Peter Bevelin begins this quest for wisdom by embarking on an ambitious journey into the Darwinian forces at the reins of human decision-making, illustrating just how our pre-agrarian genetic hard-wiring all too-often leads us into disastrous lapses in judgement, whether in financial transactions, business decisions or in everyday life, and ultimately offering us methods to sidestep error and enhance success. Bevelin argues that by being aware of the driving forces behind human nature, we can then more effectively approach our responsibilities in the workplace by conditioning ourselves to approach everyday problems through the logistical anchors of mathematical and scientific thinking. The philosophy of Berkshire Hathaway's Director and Vice-Chairman Charles Munger is offered as counterpoint to the notion that we are simply pawns of our own nature; instead, by actively engaging our knowledge of the natural determinants - biology, math, physics, etc. - and through studying diligently the philosophies of those who have weathered the storm and emerged victorious, we can use this knowledge to our distinct advantage in not only business but in all walks of life. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Conservative Investors Sleep Well Philip A. Fisher, 1975 |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Roadway Human Factors Marc Green, 2020 This book's title has two parts, Roadway Human Factors and From Science To Application. The first describes its major goal: to analyze driver behavior, especially the causes and avoidance of collisions. In most general terms, the goal is largely to answer a single question: Why didn't the driver respond sooner? The cause of most collisions lies in the answer. The book's perspective is psychological. It views roadway events through the eyes of the driver. This contrasts with the third-party god's eye view that appears in accident reconstruction diagrams and other analyses which are primarily based in physics and cookbook science. Physics cannot be ignored, but roadway events can only be explained by examining driver psychology. Drivers act based on their perceived reality which differs from the physical reality of the accident reconstruction diagram. The second part announces its method: the application of scientific research. Specifically, the science in question is experimental psychology. Much of this book reads like an introductory text on experimental psychology, albeit with a distinctly applied slant. This is necessary. There are frequent misunderstandings about the definition of human factors. It is best described as a branch of experimental psychology. Human factors applies experimental psychology data to guide the design of objects and environments so that they that fit human abilities and are easy and safe to use. This book's underlying thesis is that knowledge of the science is a necessary but not sufficient condition for understanding roadway human factors. The key word in the title is From because there is a catch-22. Controlled research has inherent characteristics which differ from real-world conditions. Scientific research is generally conducted in highly simplified and artificial situations with unrepresentative subjects and drivers. Scientific research data cannot then be directly applied to the real-world. The step from science to application is far greater than many imagine, probably because there are so few who are well versed in both. The book also introduces areas of science that are unfamiliar to most who investigate collisions. Ecological optics is a discipline of perceptual psychology that is key in understanding vehicle guidance and collision avoidance. Visual psychophysics is the psychological science that underlies visibility and all other sensory judgments. Operant learning is the psychological science of adaptability and behavior change based on the consequences of action. The book also introduces more specific concepts that are important but seldom figured into collision analysis. These include notions such as affordances and action boundaries, system tolerances, crowding, and response conflicts-- |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Why Be Happy? Scott Haas, 2020-07-07 This beautiful and practical guide to ukeireru, the Japanese principle of acceptance, offers a path to well-being and satisfaction for the anxious and exhausted. Looking for greater peace and satisfaction? Look no further than the Japanese concept of ukeireru, or acceptance. Psychologist Scott Haas offers an elegant, practical, and life-changing look at ways we can reduce anxiety and stress and increase overall well-being. By learning and practicing ukeireru, you can: Profoundly improve your relationships, with a greater focus on listening, finding commonalities, and intuiting Find calm in ritualizing things such as making coffee, drinking tea, and even having a cocktail Embrace the importance of baths and naps Show respect for self and others, which has a remarkably calming effect on everyone Learn to listen more than you talk Tidy up your life by downsizing experiences and relationships that offer more stress than solace Cultivate practical ways of dealing with anger, fear, and arguments -- the daily tensions that take up so much of our lives By practicing acceptance, we learn to pause, take in the situation, and then deciding on a course of action that reframes things. Why Be Happy? Discover a place of contentment and peace in this harried world. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Charlie Munger Tren Griffin, 2015-09-15 Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of elementary, worldly wisdom—a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management—allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment. Munger's system has steered his investments for forty years and has guided generations of successful investors. This book presents the essential steps of Munger's investing strategy, condensed here for the first time from interviews, speeches, writings, and shareholder letters, and paired with commentary from fund managers, value investors, and business-case historians. Derived from Ben Graham's value-investing system, Munger's approach is straightforward enough that ordinary investors can apply it to their portfolios. This book is not simply about investing. It is about cultivating mental models for your whole life, but especially for your investments. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Emotional Leonard Mlodinow, 2022-01-11 We’ve all been told that thinking rationally is the key to success. But at the cutting edge of science, researchers are discovering that feeling is every bit as important as thinking in this lively exposé of the growing consensus about the limited power of rationality and decision-making (The New York Times Book Review). You make hundreds of decisions every day, from what to eat for breakfast to how you should invest, and not one of those decisions would be possible without emotion. It has long been said that thinking and feeling are separate and opposing forces in our behavior. But as Leonard Mlodinow, the best-selling author of Subliminal, tells us, extraordinary advances in psychology and neuroscience have proven that emotions are as critical to our well-being as thinking. How can you connect better with others? How can you make sense of your frustration, fear, and anxiety? What can you do to live a happier life? The answers lie in understanding your emotions. Journeying from the labs of pioneering scientists to real-world scenarios that have flirted with disaster, Mlodinow shows us how our emotions can help, why they sometimes hurt, and what we can learn in both instances. Using deep insights into our evolution and biology, Mlodinow gives us the tools to understand our emotions better and to maximize their benefits. Told with his characteristic clarity and fascinating stories, Emotional explores the new science of feelings and offers us an essential guide to making the most of one of nature’s greatest gifts. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Motivational Enhancement Therapy Manual , 1992 |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: Augmented Humanity Peter T. Bryant, 2021-08-16 This open access book will examine the implications of digitalization for the understanding of humanity, conceived as a community of intelligent agency. It addresses important topics across a range of social and behavioral theories and identifies a range of novel mechanisms and their social behavioral effects. Across the book, the author highlights the expansion of intelligent processing capability brought about by digitalization and the challenges this exposes for integrating artificial and human capabilities. It includes the altered effects of bounded rationality in problem solving and decision making; related changes in the perception of rationality, plus novel myopias and biases. It also seeks to address cognitive intersubjectivity, learning from performance and agentic self-generation; and the novel methods and patterns of reasoned thought which emerge in a digitalized world; and how these mechanisms will combine in making and remaking the world of human experience and understanding. This book examines the problematics and prospects for digitally augmented humanity. In doing so, it maps the terrain for a future science of augmented agency. It will have cross-disciplinary appeal to students and scholars of applied psychology, cognitive and behavioral science, organizational psychology and management, business, finance, and digital cultures and humanities. |
| the psychology of human misjudgment: The Shame Response to Rejection Herbert E. Thomas, 1997 |
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