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| nobel prize economics predictions: Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics Wenceslao J. Gonzalez, 2015-02-19 This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Imperfect Knowledge Economics Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, 2023-09-26 Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of irrational human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Good Economics for Hard Times Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, 2019-11-12 The winners of the Nobel Prize show how economics, when done right, can help us solve the thorniest social and political problems of our day. Figuring out how to deal with today's critical economic problems is perhaps the great challenge of our time. Much greater than space travel or perhaps even the next revolutionary medical breakthrough, what is at stake is the whole idea of the good life as we have known it. Immigration and inequality, globalization and technological disruption, slowing growth and accelerating climate change--these are sources of great anxiety across the world, from New Delhi and Dakar to Paris and Washington, DC. The resources to address these challenges are there--what we lack are ideas that will help us jump the wall of disagreement and distrust that divides us. If we succeed, history will remember our era with gratitude; if we fail, the potential losses are incalculable. In this revolutionary book, renowned MIT economists Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo take on this challenge, building on cutting-edge research in economics explained with lucidity and grace. Original, provocative, and urgent, Good Economics for Hard Times makes a persuasive case for an intelligent interventionism and a society built on compassion and respect. It is an extraordinary achievement, one that shines a light to help us appreciate and understand our precariously balanced world. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Forecasting David Hendry, Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements, 2019-06-11 Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery David Warsh, 2007-05-17 What The Double Helix did for biology, David Warsh's Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations does for economics. —Boston Globe A stimulating and inviting tour of modern economics centered on the story of one of its most important breakthroughs. In 1980, the twenty-four-year-old graduate student Paul Romer tackled one of the oldest puzzles in economics. Eight years later he solved it. This book tells the story of what has come to be called the new growth theory: the paradox identified by Adam Smith more than two hundred years earlier, its disappearance and occasional resurfacing in the nineteenth century, the development of new technical tools in the twentieth century, and finally the student who could see further than his teachers. Fascinating in its own right, new growth theory helps to explain dominant first-mover firms like IBM or Microsoft, underscores the value of intellectual property, and provides essential advice to those concerned with the expansion of the economy. Like James Gleick's Chaos or Brian Greene's The Elegant Universe, this revealing book takes us to the frontlines of scientific research; not since Robert Heilbroner's classic work The Worldly Philosophers have we had as attractive a glimpse of the essential science of economics. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: In 100 Years Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2013 In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about what the future might hold in 100 years. This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped to predict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory and practice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years of experimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, these economists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about the world of the twenty-second century. In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, these thinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase in inequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and (projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism, and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, 2013 Nobelist Robert Shiller provides an innovative view of future risk management methods using information technology; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of using geoengineering techniques to mitigate the inevitable effects of climate change. Contributors Daron Acemoglu, Angus Deaton, Avinash K. Dixit, Edward L. Glaeser, Andreu Mas-Colell, John E. Roemer, Alvin E. Roth, Robert J. Shiller, Robert M. Solow, Martin L. Weitzman |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Basic Economics Thomas Sowell, 2014-12-02 The bestselling citizen's guide to economics Basic Economics is a citizen's guide to economics, written for those who want to understand how the economy works but have no interest in jargon or equations. Bestselling economist Thomas Sowell explains the general principles underlying different economic systems: capitalist, socialist, feudal, and so on. In readable language, he shows how to critique economic policies in terms of the incentives they create, rather than the goals they proclaim. With clear explanations of the entire field, from rent control and the rise and fall of businesses to the international balance of payments, this is the first book for anyone who wishes to understand how the economy functions. This fifth edition includes a new chapter explaining the reasons for large differences of wealth and income between nations. Drawing on lively examples from around the world and from centuries of history, Sowell explains basic economic principles for the general public in plain English. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Noise Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein, 2021-05-18 From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: A Beautiful Mind Sylvia Nasar, 2011-07-12 **Also an Academy Award–winning film starring Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly—directed by Ron Howard** The powerful, dramatic biography of math genius John Nash, who overcame serious mental illness and schizophrenia to win the Nobel Prize. “How could you, a mathematician, believe that extraterrestrials were sending you messages?” the visitor from Harvard asked the West Virginian with the movie-star looks and Olympian manner. “Because the ideas I had about supernatural beings came to me the same way my mathematical ideas did,” came the answer. “So I took them seriously.” Thus begins the true story of John Nash, the mathematical genius who was a legend by age thirty when he slipped into madness, and who—thanks to the selflessness of a beautiful woman and the loyalty of the mathematics community—emerged after decades of ghostlike existence to win a Nobel Prize for triggering the game theory revolution. The inspiration for an Academy Award–winning movie, Sylvia Nasar’s now-classic biography is a drama about the mystery of the human mind, triumph over adversity, and the healing power of love. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Economics of Governance Donald A. Wittman, 2017 This collection of articles uses economic theory to explain the governance of organizations. It covers the governance of families, oligarchies, democracies, for profit firms and non-profit institutions such as religious organizations. The widespread and novel subject matter within a set of focused economic questions results in fascinating reading allowing the reader to see how similar issues can be answered in areas where the person has little knowledge of the subject. This is an engaging and useful tool for students, researchers and academics wanting to expand their area of expertise into new and exciting realms. Contributors include: D. Acemoglu, R. Gibbons, H. Hansmann, P. Leeson, P. Rubin, B. Weingast |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Identity Economics George A. Akerlof, Rachel E. Kranton, 2010-01-21 How identity influences the economic choices we make Identity Economics provides an important and compelling new way to understand human behavior, revealing how our identities—and not just economic incentives—influence our decisions. In 1995, economist Rachel Kranton wrote future Nobel Prize-winner George Akerlof a letter insisting that his most recent paper was wrong. Identity, she argued, was the missing element that would help to explain why people—facing the same economic circumstances—would make different choices. This was the beginning of a fourteen-year collaboration—and of Identity Economics. The authors explain how our conception of who we are and who we want to be may shape our economic lives more than any other factor, affecting how hard we work, and how we learn, spend, and save. Identity economics is a new way to understand people's decisions—at work, at school, and at home. With it, we can better appreciate why incentives like stock options work or don't; why some schools succeed and others don't; why some cities and towns don't invest in their futures—and much, much more. Identity Economics bridges a critical gap in the social sciences. It brings identity and norms to economics. People's notions of what is proper, and what is forbidden, and for whom, are fundamental to how hard they work, and how they learn, spend, and save. Thus people's identity—their conception of who they are, and of who they choose to be—may be the most important factor affecting their economic lives. And the limits placed by society on people's identity can also be crucial determinants of their economic well-being. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Power and Prediction Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb, 2022-11-15 Disruption resulting from the proliferation of AI is coming. The authors of the bestselling Prediction Machines can help you prepare. Artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted many industries around the world—banking and finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, medical technology, manufacturing, and retail. But it has only just begun its odyssey toward cheaper, better, and faster predictions that drive strategic business decisions. When prediction is taken to the max, industries transform, and with such transformation comes disruption. What is at the root of this? In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it. The rise of AI is shifting prediction from humans to machines, relieving people from this cognitive load while increasing the speed and accuracy of decisions. This sets the stage for a flourishing of new decisions and has profound implications for system-level innovation. Redesigning systems of interdependent decisions takes time—many industries are in the quiet before the storm—but when these new systems emerge, they can be disruptive on a global scale. Decision-making confers power. In industry, power confers profits; in society, power confers control. This process will have winners and losers, and the authors show how businesses can leverage opportunities, as well as protect their positions. Filled with illuminating insights, rich examples, and practical advice, Power and Prediction is the must-read guide for any business leader or policymaker on how to make the coming AI disruptions work for you rather than against you. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Hedgehog and the Fox Isaiah Berlin, 2013-06-02 The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Economists' Hour Binyamin Appelbaum, 2019-09-03 In this lively and entertaining history of ideas (Liaquat Ahamed, The New Yorker), New York Times editorial writer Binyamin Appelbaum tells the story of the people who sparked four decades of economic revolution. Before the 1960s, American politicians had never paid much attention to economists. But as the post-World War II boom began to sputter, economists gained influence and power. In The Economists' Hour, Binyamin Appelbaum traces the rise of the economists, first in the United States and then around the globe, as their ideas reshaped the modern world, curbing government, unleashing corporations and hastening globalization. Some leading figures are relatively well-known, such as Milton Friedman, the elfin libertarian who had a greater influence on American life than any other economist of his generation, and Arthur Laffer, who sketched a curve on a cocktail napkin that helped to make tax cuts a staple of conservative economic policy. Others stayed out of the limelight, but left a lasting impact on modern life: Walter Oi, a blind economist who dictated to his wife and assistants some of the calculations that persuaded President Nixon to end military conscription; Alfred Kahn, who deregulated air travel and rejoiced in the crowded cabins on commercial flights as the proof of his success; and Thomas Schelling, who put a dollar value on human life. Their fundamental belief? That government should stop trying to manage the economy.Their guiding principle? That markets would deliver steady growth, and ensure that all Americans shared in the benefits. But the Economists' Hour failed to deliver on its promise of broad prosperity. And the single-minded embrace of markets has come at the expense of economic equality, the health of liberal democracy, and future generations. Timely, engaging and expertly researched, The Economists' Hour is a reckoning -- and a call for people to rewrite the rules of the market. A Wall Street Journal Business BestsellerWinner of the Porchlight Business Book Award in Narrative & Biography |
| nobel prize economics predictions: False Alarm Bjorn Lomborg, 2020-07-14 An “essential” (Times UK) and “meticulously researched” (Forbes) book by “the skeptical environmentalist” argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world. Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education. False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Economyths David Orrell, 2010-05-06 From the inability of wealth to make us happier, to our catastrophic blindness to the credit crunch, Economyths reveals ten ways in which economics has failed us all. Forecasters predicted a prosperous year in 2008 for financial markets - in one influential survey the average prediction was for an eleven per cent gain. But by the end of the year, the Standard and Poor's 500 index - a key economic barometer - was down 38 per cent, and major economies were plunging into recession. Even the Queen asked - Why did no one see it coming? An even bigger casualty was the credibility of economics, which for decades has claimed that the economy is a rational, stable, efficient machine, governed by well-understood laws. Mathematician David Orrell traces the history of this idea from its roots in ancient Greece to the financial centres of London and New York, shows how it is mistaken, and proposes new alternatives. Economyths explains how the economy is the result of complex and unpredictable processes; how risk models go astray; why the economy is not rational or fair; why no woman (until 2009) had ever won the Nobel Prize for economics; why financial crashes are less Black Swans than part of the landscape; and, finally, how new ideas in mathematics, psychology, and environmentalism are helping to reinvent economics. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Narrative Economics Robert J. Shiller, 2020-09-01 From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events—and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses Stories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls narrative economics—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Nobel Factor Avner Offer, Gabriel Söderberg, 2019-11-19 Economic theory may be speculative, but its impact is powerful and real. Since the 1970s, it has been closely associated with a sweeping change around the world--the market turn. This is what Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg call the rise of market liberalism, a movement that, seeking to replace social democracy, holds up buying and selling as the norm for human relations and society. Our confidence in markets comes from economics, and our confidence in economics is underpinned by the Nobel Prize in Economics, which was first awarded in 1969. Was it a coincidence that the market turn and the prize began at the same time? The Nobel Factor, the first book to describe the origins and power of the most important prize in economics, explores this and related questions by examining the history of the prize, the history of economics since the prize began, and the simultaneous struggle between market liberals and social democrats in Sweden, Europe, and the United States. The Nobel Factor tells how the prize, created by the Swedish central bank, emerged from a conflict between central bank orthodoxy and social democracy. The aim was to use the halo of the Nobel brand to enhance central bank authority and the prestige of market-friendly economics, in order to influence the future of Sweden and the rest of the developed world. And this strategy has worked, with sometimes disastrous results for societies striving to cope with the requirements of economic theory and deregulated markets |
| nobel prize economics predictions: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 2008-09-02 “Magisterial. . . . The direct and indirect influence of the Monetary History would be difficult to overstate.”—Ben S. Bernanke, Nobel Prize–winning economist and former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve From Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman and his celebrated colleague Anna Jacobson Schwartz, one of the most important economics books of the twentieth century—the landmark work that rewrote the story of the Great Depression and the understanding of monetary policy Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 is one of the most influential economics books of the twentieth century. A landmark achievement, it marshaled massive historical data and sharp analytics to argue that monetary policy—steady control of the money supply—matters profoundly in the management of the nation’s economy, especially in navigating serious economic fluctuations. One of the book’s most important chapters, “The Great Contraction, 1929–33” addressed the central economic event of the twentieth century, the Great Depression. Friedman and Schwartz argued that the Federal Reserve could have stemmed the severity of the Depression, but failed to exercise its role of managing the monetary system and countering banking panics. The book served as a clarion call to the monetarist school of thought by emphasizing the importance of the money supply in the functioning of the economy—an idea that has come to shape the actions of central banks worldwide. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: How China Became Capitalist R. Coase, N. Wang, 2016-04-30 How China Became Capitalist details the extraordinary, and often unanticipated, journey that China has taken over the past thirty five years in transforming itself from a closed agrarian socialist economy to an indomitable economic force in the international arena. The authors revitalise the debate around the rise of the Chinese economy through the use of primary sources, persuasively arguing that the reforms implemented by the Chinese leaders did not represent a concerted attempt to create a capitalist economy, and that it was 'marginal revolutions' that introduced the market and entrepreneurship back to China. Lessons from the West were guided by the traditional Chinese principle of 'seeking truth from facts'. By turning to capitalism, China re-embraced her own cultural roots. How China Became Capitalist challenges received wisdom about the future of the Chinese economy, warning that while China has enormous potential for further growth, the future is clouded by the government's monopoly of ideas and power. Coase and Wang argue that the development of a market for ideas which has a long and revered tradition in China would be integral in bringing about the Chinese dream of social harmony. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015-09-29 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Higher Education in Russia Yaroslav Kuzminov, Maria Yudkevich, 2022-09-13 A comprehensive, up-to-date look at modern Russian higher education. By the mid-eighteenth century, when the first university appeared in Russia, many European nations could boast of long and glorious university traditions. But Russia, with its poorly developed system of elementary and secondary education, lagged behind other European countries and seemed destined for a long spell of second-tier performance. Yet by the mid-twentieth century, the fully reformed system of Soviet higher education was perceived as an unexpected success, one that transformed the country into a major scientific power throughout the Cold War. Today, the international community is keeping close tabs on the fast development of world-class higher education in Russia, specifically its large-scale changes and reforms. Higher Education in Russia is the first comprehensive, up-to-date overview and analysis of modern Russian higher education. Aimed at a large international audience, it describes the current realities of higher education in Russia, as well as the main principles, logic, and relevant historical and cultural factors. Outlining the evolution of the higher education system in tsarist Russia throughout the nineteenth century, Yaroslav Kuzminov and Maria Yudkevich describe the development of its mass-scale higher education system from the end of the Second World War to the collapse of the Soviet Union and beyond. They also discuss the principal elements of today's Russian higher education system while exploring the system's governance model and the logic of its resource allocation. They touch on university selection, the structure of the country's academic profession, the organization of research, and the major excellence programs of leading universities. Illustrating the idea that the development of the higher education system is very much linked with the European experience, the authors argue that Russian higher education was often the domain of successful (and not so successful) education experiments and innovations. Higher Education in Russia is a must-read for scholars of higher education and Russian history alike. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction Amanda Guillán, 2017-08-30 This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Is Behavioral Economics Doomed? David K. Levine, 2012 In this book, David K. Levine questions the idea that behavioral economics is the answer to economic problems. He explores the successes and failures of contemporary economics both inside and outside the laboratory, and asks whether popular behavioral theories of psychological biases are solutions to the failures. The book not only provides an overview of popular behavioral theories and their history, but also gives the reader the tools for scrutinizing them. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Climate Casino William Nordhaus, 2013-10-22 Climate change is profoundly altering our world in ways that pose major risks to human societies and natural systems. We have entered the Climate Casino and are rolling the global-warming dice, warns economist William Nordhaus. But there is still time to turn around and walk back out of the casino, and in this essential book the author explains how.div /DIVdivBringing together all the important issues surrounding the climate debate, Nordhaus describes the science, economics, and politics involved—and the steps necessary to reduce the perils of global warming. Using language accessible to any concerned citizen and taking care to present different points of view fairly, he discusses the problem from start to finish: from the beginning, where warming originates in our personal energy use, to the end, where societies employ regulations or taxes or subsidies to slow the emissions of gases responsible for climate change./DIVdiv /DIVdivNordhaus offers a new analysis of why earlier policies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, failed to slow carbon dioxide emissions, how new approaches can succeed, and which policy tools will most effectively reduce emissions. In short, he clarifies a defining problem of our times and lays out the next critical steps for slowing the trajectory of global warming./DIV |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Limits to Growth Donella H. Meadows, 1972 Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Success Equation Michael J. Mauboussin, 2012-10-16 “Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck.” — From the Introduction The trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each—and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time. In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives—yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by: • Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant • Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck • Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work Showcasing Mauboussin’s trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions—in business and in life. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Economic Principles David Warsh, 2010-06-15 For nearly ten years, readers of the Sunday Boston Globe and newspapers around America have delighted in David Warsh's column, Economic Principals. This collection shows why. Taken as a whole, Warsh's writings amount to a vast and colorful group portrait of the personalities who dominate modem economics -- from the luminaries to unknown soldiers to eccentrics who add sparkle to the tapestry. Partly a history of controversies in economics, partly an essay on the evolution of the field, Economic Principals offers a glimpse of one of the most important stories of our time: the metamorphosis of a priestly class of moral philosophers into the mathematical mandarins of today, whose ideas are reshaping society even as they reveal its workings in ever more subtle detail. Warsh first recounts the rise of the economic paradigm, deftly treating the rediscovery of Adam Smith and the centrality of markets. He then turns to the generation of economists for whom the Nobel Prize was created in 1969, the men who forged the modern field in a few years during and after World War II. Some, like Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman, are well known to the public; others, like Trygvie Haavelmo and George Dantzig, are less quickly recognized. But all have interesting stories which Warsh brings to light. Tracing the high tech revolution to the current generation, he sketches younger scholars such as Jeffrey Sachs, Martin Feldstein, and others less popularly known, who rule the field today. Marking the most powerful applications of modern economics, Warsh explains how the ingenious rocket scientists of Wall Street are creating new markets and the business school wizards and leading corporate executives are reinventing the organization. Finally, in exploring the implications of modern economics, Warsh introduces us to scholars operating on the boundaries of the field, from Jane Jacobs to Noam Chomsky, and to the critics, like Donald McCloskey and Robert Reich, who have brought a bit of moral philosophy back into the economist's brave new world. At every step, Warsh maps the field with the journalist's eye for detail. Readers will see why he is considered one of the most consistently stimulating economic journalists in America today. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: A Behavioral Theory of Elections Jonathan Bendor, 2011-02-06 Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Beginner's Guide to Winning the Nobel Prize Peter Doherty, 2006 In The Beginner's Guide to Winning the Nobel Prize, Doherty recounts his unlikely path to becoming a Nobel Laureate. Beginning with his humble origins in Australia, he tells how he developed an interest in immunology and describes his award-winning, influential work with Rolf Zinkernagel on T-cells and the nature of immune defense. In prose that is at turns amusing and astute, Doherty reveals how his nonconformist upbringing, sense of being an outsider, and search for different perspectives have shaped his life and work. Doherty offers a rare, insider's look at the realities of being a research scientist. He lucidly explains his own scientific work and how research projects are selected, funded, and organized; the major problems science is trying to solve; and the rewards and pitfalls of a career in scientific research. For Doherty, science still plays an important role in improving the world, and he argues that scientists need to do a better job of making their work more accessible to the public. Throughout the book, Doherty explores the stories of past Nobel winners and considers some of the crucial scientific debates of our time, including the safety of genetically modified foods and the tensions between science and religion. He concludes with some tips on how to win a Nobel Prize, including advice on being persistent, generous, and culturally aware, and he stresses the value of evidence. The Beginner's Guide to Winning the Noble Prize is essential reading for anyone interested in a career in science. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Predictions in Time Series Using Regression Models Cory Terrell, 2019-09-02 Regression methods have been a necessary piece of time arrangement investigation for over a century. As of late, new advancements have made real walks in such territories as non-constant information where a direct model isn't fitting. This book acquaints the peruser with fresher improvements and more assorted regression models and methods for time arrangement examination. Open to any individual who knows about the fundamental present day ideas of factual deduction, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis gives a truly necessary examination of late measurable advancements. Essential among them is the imperative class of models known as summed up straight models (GLM) which gives, under a few conditions, a bound together regression hypothesis reasonable for constant, all out, and check information. The creators stretch out GLM methodology deliberately to time arrangement where the essential and covariate information are both arbitrary and stochastically reliant. They acquaint readers with different regression models created amid the most recent thirty years or somewhere in the vicinity and condense traditional and later outcomes concerning state space models. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Gift of Global Talent William R. Kerr, 2018-10-02 The global race for talent is on, with countries and businesses competing for the best and brightest. Talented individuals migrate much more frequently than the general population, and the United States has received exceptional inflows of human capital. This foreign talent has transformed U.S. science and engineering, reshaped the economy, and influenced society at large. But America is bogged down in thorny debates on immigration policy, and the world around the United States is rapidly catching up, especially China and India. The future is quite uncertain, and the global talent puzzle deserves close examination. To do this, William R. Kerr uniquely combines insights and lessons from business practice, government policy, and individual decision making. Examining popular ideas that have taken hold and synthesizing rigorous research across fields such as entrepreneurship and innovation, regional advantage, and economic policy, Kerr gives voice to data and ideas that should drive the next wave of policy and business practice. The Gift of Global Talent deftly transports readers from joyous celebrations at the Nobel Prize ceremony to angry airport protests against the Trump administration's travel ban. It explores why talented migration drives the knowledge economy, describes how universities and firms govern skilled admissions, explains the controversies of the H-1B visa used by firms like Google and Apple, and discusses the economic inequalities and superstar firms that global talent flows produce. The United States has been the steward of a global gift, and this book explains the huge leadership decision it now faces and how it can become even more competitive for attracting tomorrow's talent. Please visit www.hbs.edu/managing-the-future-of-work/research/Pages/default.aspx to learn more about the book. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Economics Richard G. Lipsey, Richard Lipsey, Alec Chrystal, 2020 An illuminating and robust introduction to economics principles, the fourteenth edition of Lipsey and Chrystal's established textbook continues to provide complete coverage for those new to micro and macroeconomics. The authors help students to understand the subject matter through a combination of lucid explanation and supportive learning features which encourage independent thought. The principles are examined through a theoretical lens before empirical examples demonstrate how the concepts work in practice. The applied nature of the models is further emphasised by case studies from around the world, which encourage students to develop and contextualise their understanding of the key themes. Suitable for beginners, the authors provide in-depth explanations of key theoretical concepts which relate to a wide range of applied material. End-of-chapter questions give students the opportunity to test their knowledge and advance their critical thinking skills.Economics undergraduates studying a core module on the principles of economics. It may also be suitable for students taking business, management, or finance and accounting degrees who are taking a module which introduces economics.This book is accompanied by online resource to support both students and lecturers. For students:- Self-test questions- Flashcard glossary- Additional chapter material - Web links For lecturers:- PowerPoint slides - Instructor's manual- Test bank- Additional chapters covering Economics of Developing Countries and Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Positive Linking Paul Ormerod, 2012-07-03 According to Paul Ormerod, author of the bestselling Butterfly Economics and Why Most Things Fail, the mechanistic viewpoint of conventional economics is drastically limited - because it cannot comprehend the vital nature of networks. As our societies become ever more dynamic and intertwined, network effects on every level are increasingly profound. 'Nudge theory' is popular, but only part of the answer. To grapple successfully with the current financial crisis, businesses and politicians need to grasp the perils and possibilities of Positive Linking. Our social and economic worlds have been revolutionised by a massive increase in our awareness of the choices, decisions, behaviours and opinions of other people. For the first time in human history, more than half of us live in cities, and this combined with the Internet has transformed communications. Network effects - the fact that a person can and often does decide to change his or her behaviour simply on the basis of copying what others do - pervade the modern world. As Ormerod shows, network effects make conventional approaches to policy, whether in the public or corporate sectors, much more likely to fail. But they open up the possibility of truly 'Positive Linking' - of more subtle, effective and successful policies, ones which harness our knowledge of network effects and how they work in practice. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Economics and Consumer Behavior Angus Deaton, John Muellbauer, 1980-05-30 For advanced courses in economic analysis, this book presents the economic theory of consumer behavior, focusing on the applications of the theory to welfare economies and econometric analysis. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Nobel Prize Laureates , 1978 |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Predictions - 10 Years Later Theodore Modis, 2002-10-31 This book is about seeing the world dynamically, as if everything in it behaved like a living organism, growing, competing, maturing, becoming weak by old age, and dying. Birth implies death, and whatever you may be preoccupied with -- business, success, misfortune, emotional relation-ships, personal development, or artistic achievement -- is characterized by a life cycle displaying well-defined phases of beginning, growth, decline, and end. The growth potential and the duration of the process may vary from case to case. Some phenomena last for a lifetime whereas others come and go like fads. But independently of the timeframe things come into and out of existence according to the same pattern, which is revelatory and sometimes even reassuring. The book is also about being able to see more clearly further into the future and make predictions, as well as to obtain a better understanding of the past. You will be surprised to find out that it is possible to see around corners! Fundamental natural laws such as competition and survival of the fittest can reveal unique insights into what the future has in store for us. But also into what the past may hide. After all, the past is not immune to the passage of time. Russia's past (Lenin, Stalin, communism, etc.) changed from heroic to shameful in a matter of a few years. And then, there are questions about the past we never asked before because we assumed there could be no answers. In Chapter 2 we answer the question how many explorers attempted to discover America before Columbus. Futurology embraces a large cross-section of individuals ranging from scientists to psychic mediums. They all claim to have ways and means for making predictions. However, proof for correct predictions is rarely demonstrated. Scientifically minded forecasters try to make their approach credible via an exercise, which consists of ignoring some of the recent data while making their prediction and then using these data to verify the prediction. But this practice fails to convince astute minds. Skeptics doubt the effectiveness of forgetting having seen the final out-come. The only really valid test for a prediction is the test of time. You make your prediction and then you wait the time necessary for the truth to come out. Track record cannot be disputed. The predictions made in this book enjoy the test of time. An older version of the book was published in 1992 by Simon & Schuster under the title Predictions - Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future. In today's edition those predictions are confronted with recent data. In every chapter new sections have been introduced under the heading Ten Years Later reviewing what happened during the last ten years and comparing it to the original predictions. There are many success stories, where prediction and reality have gone hand in hand. But there are also some intricate disagreements. The success stories reinforce our confidence in the original forecasts and the method used. The disagreements are useful in a different way. Predictions that came out wrong are not necessarily failures. It is the reader's prerogative to interpret them simply as unsuccessful forecasts and appropriately distrust further projections of the trends in question. But the author found it rewarding to dig deeper into the reasons that may cause deviations from directions dictated by fundamental natural laws. In many cases the insights obtained this way teach us more than accurate forecasts would have. Among the new material that has been added in this edition are discussions on some issues that have become topical only recently, such as the coming of hydrogen and the war on terrorism. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The AI Economy Roger Bootle, 2019-11-26 Gold winner in Business Technology category, 2020 Axiom Business Book Awards Extraordinary innovations in technology promise to transform the world, but how realistic is the claim that AI will change our lives? In this much needed book the acclaimed economist Roger Bootle responds to the fascinating economic questions posed by the age of the robot, steering a path away from tech jargon and alarmism towards a rational explanation of the ways in which the AI revolution will affect us all. Tackling the implications of Artificial Intelligence on growth, productivity, inflation and the distribution of wealth and power, THE AI ECONOMY also examines coming changes to the the way we educate, work and spend our leisure time. A fundamentally optimistic view which will help you plan for changing times, this book explains AI and leads you towards a more certain future. Extraordinary innovations in technology promise to transform the world, but how realistic is the claim that AI will change our lives? In this much needed book the acclaimed economist Roger Bootle responds to the fascinating economic questions posed by the age of the robot, steering a path away from tech jargon and alarmism towards a rational explanation of the ways in which the AI revolution will affect us all. Tackling the implications of Artificial Intelligence on growth, productivity, inflation and the distribution of wealth and power, THE AI ECONOMY also examines coming changes to the the way we educate, work and spend our leisure time. A fundamentally optimistic view which will help you plan for changing times, this book explains AI and leads you towards a more certain future. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: The Predictioneer's Game Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, 2010-10-12 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. |
| nobel prize economics predictions: Grand Pursuit Sylvia Nasar, 2011 An instant New York Times bestseller, from the author of A Beautiful Mind: a sweeping history of the invention of modern economics that takes readers from Dickens' London to modern Calcutta. |
Consumption, great and small - NobelPrize.org
By empha-sizing the links between individual consumption decisions and outcomes for the whole economy, his work has helped transform modern microeconomics, macroeconomics and …
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In a chapter in the Handbook of Labor Economics, Alan Krueger and I employed the phrase “empirical strategy” to describe econometric analy sis of natural experiments like the one John …
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By examining the various political and economic systems introduced by European colonisers, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson have been able to demonstrate a …
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built Nobel-prize worthy careers on criticism of standard economic theories. 1. experimental data … Webof predictions from economic theory by way of laboratory experiments. Today, …
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20 papers under review – some by Nobel prize-winning economists – run the full gamut of experimental economics from theoretical expositions to applications demonstrating …
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This year’s Prize in Economic Sciences rewards the design of methods that address some of the most fundamental and pressing issues of our time: long-run sustainable growth in the global …
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Dymond,2015-05-20 Since 1969 75 people have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics Recent Recognized A History of Economic Thought Contributions of the Nobel Laureates to …
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The Institute of Economic Affairs has been privileged to work with many of the world’s top economists and has published papers, books and articles by twelve Nobel prize winners. AA …
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Nobel Prize Predictions Economics: In 100 Years Ignacio Palacios-Huerta,2014-02-07 In this book ten prominent economists including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates offer their …
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Consumption, great and small - NobelPrize.org
By empha-sizing the links between individual consumption decisions and outcomes for the whole economy, his work has helped transform modern microeconomics, macroeconomics and development economics.
Prize Lecture: Empirical strategies in economics: Illuminating the …
In a chapter in the Handbook of Labor Economics, Alan Krueger and I employed the phrase “empirical strategy” to describe econometric analy sis of natural experiments like the one John Snow (1855) used to establish that cholera is a waterborne illness.
Economics Nobel Prize Predictions Full PDF - netsec.csuci.edu
Understanding the criteria and the factors that influence the committee's choice can shed light on the likely winners. This article delves into the world of predictions, exploring the history of the prize, its selection process, and the notable figures who have shaped its …
Economics Nobel Predictions (2024) - archive.ncarb.org
Economics Nobel Predictions: In 100 Years Ignacio Palacios-Huerta,2014-02-07 In this book ten prominent economists including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates offer their ideas about what the future might hold in 100 years This pithy and engaging volume shows
They provided an explanation for why some countries are rich and …
By examining the various political and economic systems introduced by European colonisers, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson have been able to demonstrate a relationship between institutions and prosperity.
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Nobel Prize Predictions Economics: In 100 Years Ignacio Palacios-Huerta,2014-02-07 In this book ten prominent economists including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates offer their ideas about what the future might hold in 100 years This pithy and engaging volume shows
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This year’s Prize in Economic Sciences rewards the design of methods that address some of the most fundamental and pressing issues of our time: long-run sustainable growth in the global economy and the welfare of the world’s population.
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